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Staying ahead with predictive analytics

Once upon a time, asset man­age­ment soft­ware was all about the work­flow involved in keep­ing tabs on things – track­ing their loca­tion, when they were last ser­viced or updat­ed, their cur­rent val­ue and so on. All that is now chang­ing, thanks to tech­nolo­gies such as big data ana­lyt­ics and machine-to-machine com­mu­ni­ca­tions.

The result is a new breed of holis­tic asset man­age­ment tools that make it pos­si­ble to look for­ward, and man­age risk and per­for­mance. They use pre­dic­tive ana­lyt­ics which can tap and cor­re­late reser­voirs of data right across an organ­i­sa­tion and beyond, not only to sched­ule pre­ven­ta­tive main­te­nance, but also to pre­dict the pos­si­ble and like­ly con­se­quences of fail­ures and assess how best to min­imise them.

“There’s a lot of dri­ve to put sen­sors on things and gen­er­ate real-time data,” says Steve Ehrlich, senior vice pres­i­dent of mar­ket­ing at asset visu­al­i­sa­tion spe­cial­ist Space-Time Insight. “The prob­lem is that gen­er­ates huge amounts of data – you used to have one ping a day, say­ing ‘Here I am’, but now it can be at sub-sec­ond inter­vals. Then the ques­tion is, I’ve col­lect­ed all this data, now what do I do with it? How do I visu­alise it and what do I do then?

“The key with big data is to con­vert it to ‘lit­tle data’ so, for exam­ple, you don’t want all the nor­mal con­di­tions, you want the abnor­mal ones. It’s the unread meters, the planes approach­ing capac­i­ty.

“So the dri­ve now is to sim­pli­fy it on to a sin­gle pane of glass or dash­board, so you can see what asset it is, what it’s doing, how that’s dif­fer­ent from what it did before and what fac­tors are involved, such as weath­er, tem­per­a­ture, an acci­dent. Then, and most impor­tant­ly, it’s look­ing for­ward to see what will it be doing tomor­row or a year from now, and what else might be affect­ed.”

A new breed of holis­tic asset man­age­ment tools make it pos­si­ble to look for­ward, and man­age risk and per­for­mance

For exam­ple, if an elec­tri­cal trans­former fails sud­den­ly, cor­re­lat­ing your asset data with weath­er reports could guide your response by show­ing it was in the path of a thun­der­storm. Then, analysing your net­work will show which cus­tomers are affect­ed, and if your ana­lyt­i­cal tools also sup­port what-ifs, you can look at the most like­ly out­comes and see how adjust­ing your response could change them.

“Ana­lyt­ics is very impor­tant, and it’s only going to become more impor­tant – it is essen­tial for pre­dic­tive main­te­nance, for exam­ple,” agrees Reid Paquin, a senior ana­lyst with the Aberdeen Group. How­ev­er, while com­pa­nies, big and small, want to sell you soft­ware to deal with this chal­lenge, he warns that it is much more than just a soft­ware prob­lem.

“Some oth­er things have to be in place,” he says. “For exam­ple, you have to have the right organ­i­sa­tion­al struc­ture, with buy-in at all lev­els from man­age­ment to the employ­ees – espe­cial­ly the employ­ees because, if they don’t trust the sys­tem, they won’t use it and it’s going to be wast­ed. You also need employ­ees with an ana­lyt­i­cal back­ground – that kind of tal­ent in the organ­i­sa­tion is often over­looked.

“Then it’s because there’s so much data being col­lect­ed and a lot of the time the sys­tems are not inter­con­nect­ed. It real­ly is about the data – it must be cor­rect and up to date, you must have access to it when you need it.”

Col­lect­ing, clean­ing and cor­re­lat­ing this data is a major part of this clas­sic big data oper­a­tion. As well as dif­fer­ent sys­tems hav­ing dif­fer­ent for­mats, the data may also come at dif­fer­ent times and in dif­fer­ent con­texts, for exam­ple sub-sec­ond machine per­for­mance data ver­sus hourly weath­er reports ver­sus ad-hoc feed­back from field ser­vice teams.

“The tech­nol­o­gy is all out there. The aero­space indus­try has been doing this for decades, for instance, because the cost of not doing it in that indus­try is enor­mous,” Mr Paquin says. “Cen­tral­is­ing data has been get­ting eas­i­er because the tech­nol­o­gy ven­dors realise they need to inte­grate with oth­er appli­ca­tions. The mar­ket has realised how crit­i­cal this is.”

He adds that apply­ing pre­dic­tive ana­lyt­ics to assets is “not a new tech­nol­o­gy, it’s a new appli­ca­tion. The com­pa­ny may already be doing ana­lyt­ics, for exam­ple in its sup­ply chain net­work, pro­duc­tion plan­ning or on the CRM [cus­tomer rela­tion­ship man­age­ment] side”. As a result, the organ­i­sa­tion may already have the nec­es­sary tal­ent and under­stand­ing, capa­ble of being rede­ployed in this new area.

Also vital is get­ting these pre­dic­tive insights up to the board in a com­pre­hen­si­ble form, says Dr Achim Krueger, vice pres­i­dent for oper­a­tional excel­lence solu­tions at soft­ware providers SAP. “Your assets are much more intel­li­gent now and are pro­duc­ing much more infor­ma­tion, and your board needs sight of that,” he says.

“Tech­no­log­i­cal fore­cast­ing of fail­ure was done years ago,” he adds. “Now you have to put that into a busi­ness con­text – how it affects the lev­el of spare parts you need or your nego­ti­a­tions on main­te­nance con­tracts – and present it to deci­sion-mak­ers in an under­stand­able form.” For instance, 3D mod­els could replace lists, with parts of the plant coloured by risk lev­el.

The impor­tance of exec­u­tive insight is under­scored by the advent of ISO 55000, the inter­na­tion­al stan­dard for asset man­age­ment. Derived from PAS 55, a spec­i­fi­ca­tion for the opti­mised man­age­ment of phys­i­cal assets, ISO 55000 was approved in Jan­u­ary. “It’s still the same par­a­digm – holis­ti­cal­ly man­ag­ing assets, with a focus on risk and per­for­mance, but ISO 55000 rais­es the impor­tance to board lev­el,” Mr Krueger says.

He adds: “Even more impor­tant is that this goes hand in hand with chang­ing busi­ness mod­els from prod­uct to ser­vice ori­en­ta­tion. For exam­ple, Rolls-Royce now sells flight hours, not engines, but the air­craft oper­a­tor is still liable. So there is a need for much more hor­i­zon­tal inte­gra­tion and infor­ma­tion shar­ing.”